WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release; February 10, 2012

WINNIPEG – With the exception of 1997 when January sales were at 660, January 2012 sales activity ranks among the best results for all other Januarys as none have even threatened the 600 sales level. Dollar volume is another story altogether as despite sales being in a virtual deadlock with last January, there was still nearly an additional $8 million worth of sales activity. As a result, we see a replay of previous years where even if sales are not up to the previous year level, the dollar volume sets a new monthly record.

Interestingly enough, some of the real star performers of last year relate to property type, dropped off in the first month this year in comparison to activity the same month a year ago. Sales of single-attached were off 25% while condominiums dropped 16%. And vacant lots and mobile homes both decreased 8%. The saving grace was the 4% increase in single family homes which accounts for the lion’s share of allMLS® sales. For example in 2011 this dominant property type comprised 74% of allMLS® sales.

Rural sales in particular stood out in January as represented 29% of all single family home sales.

JanuaryMLS® sales were down just 2 properties (564/566) while dollar volume was up 7% ($133.3 million/$124.5 million) in comparison to the same month last year. New listings entered on theMLS® in January of 1,045 were off 8% from January 2011.

“We do not read a lot into one of our slowest months of the year,” said Shirley Przybyl, president of WinnipegREALTORS®. “It is fair to say however that is does track well in line with our 2012MLS® forecast where we predictMLS® sales holding the line with last year’s 13,000 plus  performance and that dollar volume will still move up higher due to tight market conditions remaining firmly entrenched in 2012.” She added, “The extremely low interest rate environment will continue to be a real incentive for first–time buyers to get into the housing market.”

The most active residential-detached price ranges were almost evenly divided amongst three between $150,000 to $299,999. Together these sales represented 51% of total sales. Close behind the three price ranges was $100,000 to $149,999 with 15% of total sales. Condominium sales were a different story with only one price range from $150,000 to $199,999 making up 43% of all sales.

The average days on market to sell a home in January was 42 days, 2 weeks slower than last month and the same pace as January 2011. The average days on market for condominium sales was 35 days, 2  weeks slower than last month and 3 days quicker than January 2011.

From Winnipeg Free Press Publication, January 28, 2012

OTTAWA — Canada will likely avoid a crash or serious correction in its “somewhat pricey” housing market, with the possible exception of Vancouver, says a new paper from the Bank of Montreal.

The analysis by BMO economists suggests alarms about Canada’s housing market by international observers, from the International Monetary Fund to The Economist magazine, are exaggerated or simplistic.

“The main takeaway is that the national housing market appears somewhat pricey but is far removed from a bubble,” said economists Sherry Cooper and Sal Guatieri in the report released Monday.

“In our view, the (market) is more like a balloon than a bubble. While bubbles always burst, a balloon often deflates slowly in the absence of a ‘pin.’ ” The report said house sales remain strong in Alberta and Saskatchewan and in major urban centres such as Toronto, Montreal, Winnipeg, Halifax and Ottawa.

The report says Winnipeg has seen the greatest price appreciation of 11 major cities during the past decade, at 171 per cent. But it notes Winnipeg housing is still among the most affordable because the average-price-to-family-income ratio remains one of the lowest at 3.2 per cent. Vancouver’s ratio is 10 per cent, followed by Toronto at 6.7 per cent. The report estimates half the new condos in the Toronto area are purchased by investors and about 22 per cent are rented.

The one exception to the sanguine view appears to be Vancouver and parts of British Columbia, where home prices and demand from an influx of non-resident Chinese investment is elevating prices and construction. 

— The Canadian Press / staff 

From Winnipeg Free Press Publication, January 28, 2012

By Todd Lewys

By now, pretty much everyone who calls Winnipeg home knows it’s one of the hottest real estate markets in the country.

Here’s a statistic — courtesy of WinnipegRealtors’ market analyst and director of public affairs, Peter Squire — that puts just how hot the market is into perspective.

“It took us 99 years to reach onebillion dollars in sales in 2002,” he said at WinnipegREALTORS’ sixth annual forecast breakfast Jan. 25. “Nine years later, this milestone has tripled. Winnipeg, thanks to an increasingly hot real estate market over the past nine years, is now a three-billion-dollar MLS market.”

A banner 2011 — marred only by slow sales in April, the result of flooding — reinforced the fact the Winnipeg market isn’t about to slow down any time soon.

“Overall, we were just 14 sales shy of topping our best year, 2007. Sales volume was highest in June at $368 million, while the only month down in volume was April,” reported Squire. “And our summers are no longer sleepy, as sales volume was strong through the entire summer, right into September.”

As for sales hot spots, the most active areas included St. Vital, Fort Rouge and Transcona, where sale prices routinely went above the average list price. One area that rated as a very pleasant surprise was Steinbach, where sales volume increased dramatically.

“Rural areas have really come on in the last few years, none moreso than Steinbach. Last year, there were over 500 home sales there,” he said. “The area there is booming, so we expect sales volume to be strong in 2012, too.”

With it still being a sellers’ market due to high demand and a relatively low inventory level, it’s not surprising home prices increased in 2011. Whereas the average price in 2010 was $241,743, that figure shot up just over $15,000 in 2011 to $256,748.

That increase can be attributed to several factors that have put resale homes in high demand, added Squire.

“International migration has been a huge driver. With our low apartment vacancy rate, people who couldn’t find an apartment then looked to buying a home, whether it be a single-family detached home or a condominium,” he said. “About 76 per cent of sales were residential detached homes, while more than 1,600 condominiums were sold in 2011. It’s a trend I see continuing, it’s just a matter of supply.”

Several other factors will also contribute to what figures to be an active 2012, as sales figures in January have been strong.

“More people are coming to the province, while interest rates are expected to remain low through 2012,” said Squire. “Manitoba’s economy is solid and the jobless rate is low, which should also keep sales strong. Other things like new construction and the Winnipeg plan, which will encourage and facilitate more development, should also help.”

However, 2012 figures may not be quite as robust as 2011, a near record year.

“It’s going to be difficult to top such a strong year. Still, our forecast is for home sales to go up zero to two per cent, with home prices increasing by three to five per cent and condominium prices going up by two to four per cent,” he said. “We’re also predicting that total volume will be up four to six per cent. The only cautionary note is that debt and deficit issues by all levels of government, as well as global (economic) uncertainty could influence those numbers downward.”

With the Winnipeg Jets back in the fold, and a new stadium for the Blue Bombers and IKEA coming in the near future, Winnipeg now finds itself in an exciting new category, said Squire.

“We’re a major league city with affordable housing. As a city, we’re ready for takeoff,” he concluded.