WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release, October 8, 2013

WINNIPEG – Not to take anything away from a respectable MLS® sales performance and new MLS® dollar volume record for September, but you have to shine the light most brightly on the sharp increase in new listings. The byproduct of this surge in new offerings for buyers left an end of the month inventory far larger and healthier than it has been in years. MLS® sales were ahead of last September by 8% and 3% over the 10-year average for September MLS® sales activity. September also sets a new dollar volume record, just edging out September 2011 when there were over 1200 sales.

September MLS® results conclude a very impressive third quarter where all the additional listings were capturing buyers’ attention. Dollar volume for the third quarter alone was less than $42 million away from reaching the $1 billion mark, well ahead of previous third quarters. Sales as well top out as best ever for this three month period....

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release, September 6, 2013

WINNIPEG - Not only were barbecues sizzling in August. August MLS® sales were at record levels for this month and dollar volume shattered its previous best for August by going over $300 million for the first time. The same occurrence happened in July with dollar volume easily eclipsing $300 million too. MLS® sales were also at near record levels.

And like the fish that got away, if WinnipegREALTORS® had reeled in 8 more MLS® sales in August it would have reached a new milestone level of 1,300 for this month. This also happened in 2011 and 2005 where they were 10 and 7 short respectively of reaching 1,300 MLS® sales. Whether walking, biking, gardening, golfing, at the cottage or golfing at a course near your cottage, the 1600 strong REALTOR® network reached out across the entire WinnipegREALTORS® market region to deliver the best combined summer months of market activity in the association’s 110-year...

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release, August 9, 2013

WINNIPEG – If July was a cup of coffee it would be brimming over the top. Dollar volume not only crashed through $300 million for the first time in July but eclipsed $350 million in sales transaction activity. Helping achieve this new benchmark for July were sales only 19 shy of the highest July sales ever. Back in July 2008 1,407 sales were recorded on WinnipegREALTORS®’ MLS®.

As a result of a sterling July MLS® performance, year-to-date dollar volume is now ahead of last year’s with both years being the first ones to reach and go over $2 billion in seven months’ time. Without listings you cannot have sales and July was exceptional in seeing more than 2,000 new listings come on the market. This level of listings is more typical of a spring month. Given how 2013 saw delayed spring market activity due to a prolonged winter we may well be in catch up mode in July.

July MLS® unit sales increased 13%...

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release, July 4, 2013

WINNIPEG - A solid MLS® sales performance in June finished off a strong second quarter result and brought year-to-date sales much closer to the downside risk of minus 4% factored into the annual 2013 MLS® market forecast.

No major road blocks in the way to conclude a month ranked in the second tier of Junes that edged up to the 1,500 sales level but could not go further as was the case in 2007, 2008 and 2011. Nevertheless, 2013 June sales are only off the best June ever by 5%. June dollar volume set a new June monthly record of $392 million and it helped bring year-to-date dollar volume within less than 2% of last year’s dollar volume total.

New MLS® listings rose 9% over June last year leaving an inventory going into July of close to 4,000 units for sale. You have to go back to the 90s to find this much MLS® listing supply.

“June MLS® unit sales were virtually even (1,480/1,487) while dollar volume was up...

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release, June 7, 2013

WINNIPEG – With April starting a recovery from a poor first quarter, May did one better by setting an all time monthly MLS® dollar volume record of $412 million. It is only the second time dollar volume for monthly sales has exceeded $400 million. May MLS® sales finished strong too! They were 5% ahead of the 10-year average and fourth best for the month of May.

Most noteworthy however are condominium sales with a 23% increase over the same month last year and a 9% improvement in the first five months of 2013 over the same period in 2012. Helping drive this upward trend in condominium sales is more existing supply and new ones coming on the market. The inventory was up 31% going into May 2013 and it maintained a 27% gain at the end of the month compared to May 2012. Affordable listings were clearly evident with 40% of all condo sales happening in the $150,000 to $199,999 price range.

Overall MLS® inventory is healthy with...

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release, May 9, 2013

WINNIPEG - Signs of spring while questionable at times in April brought more buyers out to take advantage of an MLS® inventory higher than it has been in many years. The equivalent of nearly 40 % of the 3,205 MLS® listings at the end of April sold and that is over 400 units more than what sold the previous month. While sales and dollar volume were down from April 2012, sales were still 2% above the 10-year average and dollar volume finished a strong second to last year’s highest April dollar volume of $337 million.

Another positive indicator was new listings coming on the market in April of nearly 2.100 are near the highest level for this time of year. Every indication in May with warmer sunny days enabling yard work to commence in customary fashion is the spring market has arrived in earnest.

It is important to note while active residential-detached listings are higher at the end of April than they were at the same time last...

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release, April 8, 2013

WINNIPEG - Will someone turn the pilot light back on and warm up our MLS® market?  You have to go back to the old Winnipeg Jets era when the likes of Teemu Selanne and Thomas Steen were entertaining fans at the Winnipeg Arena to find the last March where sales were lower than March 2013. It just so happened to be the 1994-1995 NHL lockout season where only 48 games were played. Sound familiar! And lack of scoring or conversions of listings to sales clearly hurt sales activity in March. To use another sports analogy, many buyers decided to sit on the sidelines and not venture out onto the field of play.

Listings were not the issue as new ones coming on the market were down less than 7% while the active inventory at the end of March remains up 4% over the same time last year. A collective buyer pause seemed to engulf the local real estate market. If it helps restore some supply-demand balance to what has been one of the tightest resale...

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release, March 8, 2013

WINNIPEG – Call it what you will, whether some rather harsh winter weather conditions or just softening in the local marketplace for this time of year, there was a real parallel in the drop off of new listings and sales at 12 and 11% respectively. The conversion of new or current listings to sales remained the same this February as in the past two years. So one way of interpreting what happened this year to precipitate less sales activity is there were less property owners willing to put their property on the market. At the same time, buyers at least for single family homes did not reach into the older existing inventory to any great extent to buy what was on the market. 

One area where home sales were down significantly were in the price ranges under $200,000 where the inventory was well off what existed last year at the beginning of February. They also as a property type experienced a drop in the percentage of listings being...

Decent article below about household debt in Canada.

I have highlighted comments about interest rates staying stable until 2014, as well as comments towards the end of the article regarding the long term potential of rates rising a bit and home owners planning for this eventuality.

At a recent WinnipegREALTORS® forecast breakfast the following statistics were presented:

     1)  Personal Debt per capita (2011)

• USA            $37,000

• Canada        $32,000

• Manitoba      $16,000

     2)  Mortgage Arrears - Deliquency Rate (90+ days,  2011)

• USA            3.46 %

• Canada        0.41 %

• Manitoba      0.21 %

Manitoba is fairing (behaving) much better than the rest of North America.  So, just like the weather, and the real estate market, it would appear that purchasing behavior can have local variances as well....

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release, February 6, 2013

WINNIPEG -   You have to go back to 1997 to reveal an unusually exceptional January MLS® sales performance. 660 unit sales to be exact and nothing has come close ever since. Even this January at 616 is 7% off the best January in WinnipegREALTORS® 110- year history. 

More recent history shows there were a few Januarys in the early 2000s which flirted with the 600 mark level but still fell short. Whatever way you look at it, January 2013 is a great kickstart to the year with the second best unit sales on record for this month. Not surprisingly, a new monthly dollar volume record for January was set as well, given better than average sales and prices remaining firm. A real impetus behind these strong sales was an 11% increase in MLS® listings (1,164 new properties). These were a welcome addition to the existing inventory and gave buyers more options to choose from.

Condominiums sales stood out with a 26% increase...

From WinnipegREALTORS® Real Estate News Publication, January 18, 2013

“Forecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes (typically) have not yet been observed. A commonplace example might be estimation of some variable of interest at some specified future date.  

"Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction; it is generally considered good practice to indicate the degree of uncertainty attached to forecasts. In any case, the data must be up to date in order for the forecast to be as accurate as possible.” — Wikipedia.

WinnipegREALTORS® does have a very up-to-date MLS®, or Multiple Listing Service®, and it is not only rich in historical data and authenticity, but offers a number of solid indicators to help the 110-year-old association gauge the status of the market. 

As is the case with other real estate associations or boards across the country, WinnipegREALTORS® decided seven years ago to...

From WinnipegREALTORS® Real Estate News Publication, January 11, 2013

What is in store for the local MLS® market in the New Year? 

As is so often the case, we glean information from trends that have transpired to help us determine what lies ahead. 

So what drove 2011 and was also present in 2012 that is likely to remain in place this year?  Let’s start with interest rates. With the overnight Bank of Canada rate remaining steadfast at one per cent and no one calling for much movement due to global debt issues, it should be a relatively safe bet to predict interest rates will stay historically low. As has been evident for the past few years, when a low interest rate environment has been the norm, those in a position to finance a property on such attractive terms will be back in the market in 2013.

While interest rates make housing more affordable, jobs give people the means and confidence to acquire a home. Manitoba’s employment statistics were strong at...

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release, January 7, 2013

WINNIPEG - 2012 has to be regarded as another exceptional year with sales only nudged out in 2007 and 2011 by the slightest of margins. Annual dollar volume resulted in moving the bar a little bit higher again and it is only the second time in WinnipegREALTORS® 109-year history where sales dollar volume has exceeded the $3 billion mark achieved in 2011. In only 5 years, the total MLS® dollar volume has increased 44%. This increase equates to nearly $1 billion.

While December MLS® sales fell short of last year’s record level for this month, the over 600 sales are still 5% above the ten-year average. There are enough of them to bring the year-end total sales to just over 13,000, a milestone level only reached twice before in 2007 and last year. Despite MLS® monthly dollar volume being well off 2011 December’s all time best; the annual dollar volume eclipsed the $3 billion record level established last year. New...

Despite recent headlines of record home prices across Canada, a 2012 study by Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC indicates there are still many affordable markets where Canadian buyers can achieve their dream of homeownership.  Coldwell Banker has issued its annual Home Listing Report (HLR) revealing several of Canada’s most affordable real estate markets. 

Affordability remains strong in many markets across the country as close to thirty Canadian markets analyzed by the report had an average home listing price of less than $300,000 for four-bedroom, two-bathroom homes.  

Winnipeg, despite steady annual price increases since the late 90's, still remains at the middle of the pack; ranked 33rd out of the 74 markets studied across Canada, as prices are listed lowest to highest. 

Full Canadian ranking can be viewed here.  (Make sure you pick "Canada" from the drop down tab)

Windsor, Ontario was Canada’s most affordable market, averaging a $170,991...

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release, December 6, 2012

Winnipeg - While it may be the last quarter of the year with sales activity slowing down in comparison to the spring market, it was not the case for the upper tier of the residential-detached market. Five house sales all went for above $1 million with one commanding $2 million.

It is only the second time in WinnipegREALTORS® history in which a house has sold for $2 million or more. In 2006, another stately mansion home sold for $2,025,000. Despite November MLS® sales being down slightly less than 4% from the best November ever last year, the upper end residential-detached market of $500,000 or more saw an increase of 25% . There was even one condominium sale in November for $650,000.

November 2012 MLS® sales are only second to 2011 and 2007 where sales in the high 800s are virtually identical. Interestingly enough these are the two same years 2012 is competing with for the overall best year on record for total MLS®...

From WinnipegREALTORS® Real Estate News Publication, November 9, 2012.

WinnipegREALTORS® president Shirley Przybyl is confident that MLS® sales will top $3 billion for the second consecutive year and will likely establish a new dollar volume record by the end of 2012.

Dollar volume sales in October nearly reached $282, which included the sale of three $1-million-plus homes and a $925,000 condominium, resulting in a new record for the month.

“We knew coming into the second half of 2012, especially the final two months, that we were up against some absolutely terrific all-time or near-best monthly sales performances in 2011,” Przybyl said. “So it will not be easy to maintain our slim lead to the end of the year.

“On the other hand, we are confident in saying that WinnipegREALTORS® will once again hit $3 billion in sales,” she added.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) reported in its recent Winnipeg Housing Market Outlook that...

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release; November 6, 2012

WINNIPEG - Only October 2007 surpasses this October in sales but dollar volume worth nearly $282 million, including three $1 million plus home sales and a $925,000 condominium, resulted in a new October dollar volume record. It also sets up an interesting finishing two months with a razor-thin lead in MLS® sales over 2011 and within 140 sales of the best year ever in 2007. New listings are positive with over 1,500 new properties put on the MLS® in October or 8% more than the same month last year. There are over 3,000 active MLS® properties available for purchase in November of which 1,748 are residential-detached or single family homes. Based on previous November listing entries, you can expect another 1,000 MLS® properties coming to market.

So buyers should be encouraged and also take some consolation knowing October had a two to one ratio of residential-detached sales going for below list price rather than for above...

From WinnipegREALTORS® Real Estate News Publication, November 2, 2012.

Canada is not poised for an American-style real estate meltdown, according to a new report from CIBC World Markets. 

While there are a number of factors that raise concerns about Canada’s housing market, according to the report, there are fundamental differences between the Canadian and U.S. markets that should see a soft landing and no American-style meltdown for the real estate market here.

“To be sure, house prices in Canada will probably fall in the coming year or two, but any comparison to the American market of 2006 reflects deep misunderstanding of the credit landscapes of the pre-crash environment in the U.S. and today’s Canadian market,” said CIBC deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal.

While the debt-to-income ratio in Canada just broke the American record set in 2006,  Tal said, “this ratio is more a headline grabber than a serious analytical tool. There is...

From WinnipegREALTORS® Real Estate News Publication, October 26, 2012.

Despite some earlier signals by Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney that it may be time to increase the central bank’s interest rate to curb household debt, the overnight bank rate remains unchanged at one per cent. 

The same rate has been in effect for 25 consecutive months, mirroring the rate of the 1950s, when “Uncle Louis” St. Laurent was prime minister, Vincent Massey was appointed the nation’s first Canadian-born governor-general, and the CBC opened Canada’s first TV station in Montréal.

Carney had been warning Canadians to bring down household debt to a more manageable level or he will be forced to step in and force the issue. 

According to Statistics Canada, Canadian household debt was 167 per cent of income in the second quarter, which the Bank of Canada considers to be a threat to the nation’s financial stability.

“Households need to slow...

From Winnipeg Free Press Publication, October 6, 2012.  By Todd Lewys.

Decent article commenting on the recent WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release, October 5, 2012.  Some notable exerpts below:

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.'s senior market analyst for Manitoba said it's premature to conclude a correction is underway when the market fundamentals remain so strong.

Dianne Himbeault said when the federal government tightened mortgage lending guidelines in 2009 and in 2010, MLS sales declined for several months and then rebounded because demand for homes remained strong.

"So we could be seeing that again," she said,.

Przybyl said it's also noteworthy that 34 per cent of the detached homes that changed hands last month sold for more than the listed price. That's down only three per cent from September last year, and 2011 was the second best year on record for MLS sales in Winnipeg.

"That tells me we still have demand from buyers."

True, September unit sales were down,...